The fitting interval is the choice that most affects the answer, and in a spreadsheet it is explicit. A decline fitted through a period that includes a workover, a choke change or a facility outage will follow the operational history rather than the reservoir behaviour. Building the conditioning sheets and selecting the interval manually forces the analyst to look at the production history and decide what part of it represents unconstrained depletion, which is the step most often skipped when a package selects the interval automatically.

Implementing the b exponent from its equation makes its meaning visible. When the hyperbolic equation is written into a cell and the exponent varied, the effect on the forecast is immediate and dramatic, and the divergence of cumulative production as b approaches and exceeds one becomes obvious rather than theoretical. Analysts who have built this are far less likely to accept a fitted b of two from a package without question.

Terminal decline has to be implemented deliberately, which is an advantage. A modified hyperbolic forecast requires calculating the point at which the instantaneous decline rate falls to the terminal value and switching to exponential decline from that point. Building this calculation makes the analyst choose and justify the terminal rate rather than accept a default, and the sensitivity of estimated ultimate recovery to that choice becomes visible.

Finally, batch analysis across many wells is straightforward in a spreadsheet and is where the practical value concentrates. A workbook that conditions, fits and forecasts a hundred wells consistently, applies the same constraints to each and produces a summary table with parameters and forecasts is a tool an asset team uses weekly. Building it once and maintaining it is well within the reach of the engineers who use the results.

By the end of this training, participants will be able to:

• Build production data conditioning sheets including downtime normalisation and interval selection
• Implement Arps exponential, hyperbolic and harmonic decline from their equations
• Implement modified hyperbolic, power law exponential, stretched exponential, Duong and logistic models
• Build automated curve fitting using solver with explicit error functions and constraints
• Implement terminal decline and calculate switch points
• Construct type wells with normalisation for lateral length, completion and vintage
• Build multi-well batch analysis producing consistent parameters and forecasts
• Implement Monte Carlo probabilistic forecasting within a spreadsheet
• Calculate economic limit and reserves from forecast output
• Structure workbooks for reuse, audit and maintenance

Organisations sending participants to this training will:

• Improve forecast quality through better data conditioning and model selection
• Reduce optimism bias by making fitting choices explicit
• Produce consistent forecasts across wells, assets and analysts
• Build batch analysis capability that makes routine forecasting fast
• Produce transparent forecasts that can be reviewed and audited
• Reduce dependence on software licences for routine forecasting work

Participants will:

• Understand exactly what a decline fit is doing
• Condition production data properly before fitting
• Choose models and constraints deliberately rather than accepting defaults
• Build tools that analyse many wells consistently
• Produce probabilistic forecasts without specialist software
• Acquire a portable capability used daily in reservoir and evaluation work

• Reservoir and production engineers producing forecasts
• Reserves and evaluation engineers
• Production technologists and surveillance engineers
• Planning and performance staff building production profiles
• Technical staff conducting due diligence and asset valuation
• Graduate engineers building analytical capability
• Engineers without routine access to forecasting software

Upon successful completion of this training course, delegates will be awarded an official Certificate of Completion issued by the Petroleum Engineers Association (PEA), an ISO 9001:2015 certified training organization. The certificate carries 10 Credits and formally records the total learning hours completed.

Each certificate is signed by the Course Facilitator and the CEO of the Petroleum Engineers Association, and serves as verifiable proof of professional training that delegates can present to employers and professional bodies worldwide.