Risk Assessment & Contingency Planning in Well Design
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Risk Assessment & Contingency Planning in Well Design - DC-RAC-PEA27
| Code | Date | Time | Duration | Location | Currency | Early Bird Fee Per Person |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DC-RAC-PEA27 | 01 - 05 Mar 2027 | 10 AM CST | 4 Hours / Day |
Online |
USD |
3500 |
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Risk Assessment & Contingency Planning in Well Design
This course covers risk assessment and contingency planning for well design and delivery. Participants study hazard identification, qualitative and quantitative risk assessment, barrier and bow tie analysis, probabilistic time and cost risk, contingency planning and decision trees, risk registers, management of change, and risk communication to decision makers.
Description
Wells are designed and drilled against uncertainty: pore pressure that may be higher than predicted, formations that may be unstable, equipment that may fail and operations that may go wrong. Risk assessment identifies what could happen, how likely it is and what it would cost, and contingency planning decides in advance what will be done about it.
This course covers both. It starts with hazard identification techniques applied to well design, then covers qualitative risk assessment, risk matrices and their limitations, and quantitative methods including probabilistic time and cost risk analysis. It covers barrier thinking and bow tie analysis applied to well hazards such as well control, lost circulation and stuck pipe. The second half covers contingency planning: identifying credible scenarios, writing contingency procedures, decision trees and trigger criteria, and the equipment and materials that contingency plans depend on. It closes with risk registers and their maintenance, management of change during execution, risk reviews and communicating risk to decision makers.
A risk register that lists hazards without defining responses is a document, not a plan. The value lies in the decisions made in advance: what mud weight triggers setting casing early, what loss rate triggers a lost circulation treatment, when a sidetrack becomes the preferred option, what equipment must be on location before a particular section starts.
Quantifying risk changes conversations. A drilling engineer saying a section is risky is an opinion; a probabilistic estimate showing a twenty per cent chance of losing five days and two million dollars is a number that management can act on, by funding mitigation, accepting the risk or changing the design. The quantification does not need to be elaborate to be useful.
The most common failure is planning for the risks that are easy to list rather than the ones that are likely. Offset wells usually show exactly which problems recur in an area, and those are where contingency effort belongs. This course keeps the focus on credible, evidence-based risk rather than comprehensive but generic hazard lists.
By the end of this training, participants will be able to:
- Identify hazards in well design and delivery using structured techniques.
- Apply qualitative risk assessment and understand the limits of risk matrices.
- Apply quantitative risk assessment to time and cost.
- Build probabilistic risk models for well delivery.
- Apply barrier and bow tie analysis to major well hazards.
- Identify credible contingency scenarios from offset and subsurface data.
- Write contingency procedures with clear trigger criteria.
- Build decision trees for in-well decisions.
- Maintain a risk register and apply management of change.
- Communicate risk and recommended mitigation to decision makers.
The course is instructor-led and workshop-based. Participants carry out a hazard identification session on a well design, build a risk register, quantify selected risks and write contingency procedures with trigger criteria. Real well cases are used, including wells where the realised problem had been identified in planning and wells where it had not. Participants are encouraged to bring their own wells for discussion.
Organisations sending participants to this training will:
- Identify and mitigate the risks that actually occur in your wells.
- Reduce the cost and duration impact of drilling problems.
- Make contingency planning specific and actionable.
- Improve risk communication to management and partners.
- Build a risk and lessons learned process across the well portfolio.
Participants will:
- Be able to run a structured hazard identification for a well.
- Be able to quantify time and cost risk.
- Be able to write usable contingency procedures and decision trees.
- Be able to maintain a risk register through execution.
- Be able to present risk to decision makers clearly.
- Drilling and well engineers
- Well delivery and project engineers
- Drilling supervisors
- HSE and technical safety staff supporting well operations
- Technical authorities reviewing well designs
- Planning and cost engineers
Module 1: Risk in Well Delivery
- Sources of uncertainty in well design
- Technical, operational, HSE and commercial risk
- Risk appetite and acceptance criteria
- Risk management through the well life cycle
Module 2: Hazard Identification
- Structured identification techniques
- Drilling hazard identification sessions
- Offset well evidence
- Subsurface hazard identification
- Documenting identified hazards
Module 3: Qualitative Risk Assessment
- Likelihood and consequence assessment
- Risk matrices and their limitations
- Ranking and prioritisation
- Common biases in qualitative assessment
Module 4: Quantitative Risk Assessment
- Quantifying time and cost impact
- Event probability estimation
- Expected value and risk-weighted cost
- Sensitivity analysis
Module 5: Probabilistic Risk Modelling
- Building a probabilistic well delivery model
- Monte Carlo simulation
- Interpreting distributions
- Communicating probabilistic results
Module 6: Barriers and Bow Tie Analysis
- Barrier thinking applied to well hazards
- Bow tie construction
- Prevention and mitigation barriers
- Barrier verification during execution
Module 7: Contingency Planning
- Identifying credible scenarios
- Lost circulation, stuck pipe, well control and equipment failure contingencies
- Contingency strings and sidetrack planning
- Equipment and materials on location
- Writing contingency procedures
Module 8: Decision Trees and Triggers
- Decision tree construction
- Trigger criteria and hold points
- Authority and escalation
- Pre-agreed decisions versus real-time judgement
Module 9: Registers, Change and Communication
- Risk register structure and maintenance
- Management of change during execution
- Risk reviews before and during the well
- Presenting risk to management and partners
- Capturing outcomes and updating risk data
Upon successful completion of this training course, delegates will be awarded an official Certificate of Completion issued by the Petroleum Engineers Association (PEA), an ISO 9001:2015 certified training organization. The certificate carries 10 Credits and formally records the total learning hours completed.
Each certificate is signed by the Course Facilitator and the CEO of the Petroleum Engineers Association, and serves as verifiable proof of professional training that delegates can present to employers and professional bodies worldwide.
Frequently Asked Questions
All course bookings made through PEA are strictly non-refundable. By registering for a course, you acknowledge and accept that all fees are payable in full and are not subject to refund under any circumstances, including changes in personal or professional commitments or partial attendance.
PEA reserves the right to make reasonable adjustments to course content, trainers, or schedules where necessary, without entitling delegates to a refund. Comprehensive details of each course — including objectives, target audience, and content — are clearly outlined before enrolment, and it is the responsibility of the delegate to ensure the course's suitability prior to booking.
For any inquiries related to cancellations or bookings, please contact our support team, who will be happy to assist you.