Most of a well's cost is time multiplied by daily spread rate. That makes time estimation the core of cost estimation, and it is where estimates most often go wrong, usually by assuming that every section performs at offset best rather than offset average, and by allowing too little for trouble time in a well where the offsets all had trouble.

Probabilistic estimating addresses this honestly. Instead of a single number, the estimate becomes a distribution built from section time ranges and the probability and cost of specific trouble events. The result gives the decision maker a low, expected and high case, which is a far better basis for a budget than a single figure with an unexplained ten per cent contingency.

Tracking is the other half. Costs committed early, including long lead items and mobilisations, are spent before the rig arrives. Daily cost tracking during drilling, with commitments and accruals properly captured, is what allows an overrun to be seen while there is still time to react rather than at final invoice. This course covers estimating and tracking as one subject.

By the end of this training, participants will be able to:

• Analyse well cost structure and the main cost drivers.
• Estimate section times and build a well time estimate.
• Estimate flat time and trouble time with justification.
• Estimate rig, service, material and logistics costs.
• Build probabilistic cost estimates and interpret the resulting distribution.
• Determine contingency and risk allowance on a defensible basis.
• Prepare an authorisation for expenditure and supporting documentation.
• Track cost, commitments and accruals during execution.
• Carry out variance analysis and manage supplementary approvals.
• Produce end-of-well cost reports and benchmark against offset wells.

The course is instructor-led and spreadsheet-based. Participants build a complete well cost estimate from offset data, including a probabilistic time and cost model, then track it against a simulated drilling history with problems and changes. Real AFEs and end-of-well cost reports are examined. Participants are encouraged to bring their own cost data for discussion.

Organisations sending participants to this training will:

• Produce well cost estimates that hold up against actual outcomes.
• Reduce overruns and supplementary approvals.
• Make contingency and risk allowance defensible rather than arbitrary.
• Improve cost tracking and early warning during execution.
• Benchmark well cost performance credibly between wells and fields.

Participants will:

• Be able to build a well time and cost estimate from offset data.
• Be able to produce a probabilistic estimate and explain it.
• Be able to prepare and defend an AFE.
• Be able to track cost and explain variance during execution.
• Be able to benchmark and improve estimating accuracy.

• Drilling and well engineers
• Well delivery and project engineers
• Cost engineers and planners
• Drilling supervisors involved in cost control
• Finance and commercial staff working with well budgets
• Asset and development engineers

Upon successful completion of this training course, delegates will be awarded an official Certificate of Completion issued by the Petroleum Engineers Association (PEA), an ISO 9001:2015 certified training organization. The certificate carries 10 Credits and formally records the total learning hours completed.

Each certificate is signed by the Course Facilitator and the CEO of the Petroleum Engineers Association, and serves as verifiable proof of professional training that delegates can present to employers and professional bodies worldwide.