An Interactive 5-Day Training Course
Drilling Risk & Decision Analysis
Deciding Under Drilling Uncertainty
Secure your spot now!
Duration
5 Days
Price
$ 3,500
Starting From
27 Mar 2027
Drilling Risk & Decision Analysis
Have Questions ?
Drilling Risk & Decision Analysis - DC-DRA-PEA27
| Code | Date | Time | Duration | Location | Currency | Early Bird Fee Per Person |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DC-DRA-PEA27 | 27 - 31 Mar 2027 | 10 AM CST | 4 Hours / Day |
Online |
USD |
3500 |
Need this for a group? We deliver the same course in-house — face-to-face at your location or online — tailored to your assets and team level. Contact info@peassociations.com
Boost your team's skills and your budget! Enjoy group discounts for collaborative learning. Send an inquiry to info@peassociations.com.
Drilling Risk & Decision Analysis
This course covers risk and decision analysis for drilling. Participants study risk identification and registers, qualitative and quantitative assessment, probability estimation, decision trees and expected value, value of information, probabilistic cost and duration modelling, contingency setting, risk-based design decisions, bias in judgement and risk communication.
Description
Drilling decisions are made under uncertainty: whether to run a contingency string, whether to take a core, whether to accept a marginal cement job, whether to continue fishing. Most are made on judgement and experience, which works until the situation is unfamiliar or the stakes are large enough that intuition needs checking.
This course provides the analytical framework. It starts with risk identification and register construction for well projects, then covers qualitative assessment, matrices and their limitations, and quantitative assessment with probability and consequence estimation. It covers decision trees, expected value and the treatment of risk preference, and the value of information, which decides whether a test, a log or an appraisal well is worth its cost. It then covers probabilistic cost and duration modelling, contingency setting from distributions, risk-based design decisions in casing, equipment and contingency planning, the biases that distort judgement under uncertainty, and the communication of risk to management and partners.
Expected value settles arguments that experience cannot. Whether to spend half a day avoiding a one in eight chance of a five-day problem is arithmetic, and once the numbers are on the table the discussion becomes about the inputs rather than about who has more experience.
The value of information is the most useful and least used concept. A log, a test or a pilot hole is worth paying for only if its result would change a decision, and quantifying that avoids both the expensive data nobody acts on and the cheap data that would have prevented a failure.
Judgement under uncertainty is systematically biased. Anchoring on the last well, overconfidence in narrow ranges, optimism in planning and reluctance to abandon a failing course of action all appear repeatedly in drilling decisions. Knowing the patterns is the first defence; structured methods are the second.
By the end of this training, participants will be able to:
- Identify risks and build risk registers for well projects.
- Apply qualitative risk assessment and understand matrix limitations.
- Estimate probabilities and consequences for drilling risks.
- Build and solve decision trees for drilling decisions.
- Apply expected value and account for risk preference.
- Calculate the value of information for data acquisition decisions.
- Build probabilistic cost and duration models.
- Set contingency from probability distributions.
- Apply risk-based reasoning to casing, equipment and contingency decisions.
- Recognise judgement biases and communicate risk to management and partners.
The course is instructor-led and quantitative but accessible, with all methods applied to real drilling decisions. Participants build registers, decision trees, value of information calculations and probabilistic models, and work through decisions where the analytical answer differed from the intuitive one. Participants are encouraged to bring their own decisions for discussion.
Organisations sending participants to this training will:
- Make significant drilling decisions on an explicit, defensible basis.
- Set contingency and risk provision from analysis rather than habit.
- Spend on data acquisition only where it changes decisions.
- Reduce the effect of bias on well planning and operations.
- Communicate drilling risk credibly to management and partners.
Participants will:
- Be able to build and use risk registers for wells.
- Be able to build decision trees and apply expected value.
- Be able to calculate the value of information.
- Be able to build probabilistic cost and duration models.
- Be able to recognise bias and present risk clearly.
- Drilling engineers and well planners
- Drilling superintendents and managers
- Project and cost engineers
- Subsurface staff involved in well decisions
- Commercial and partner representatives
- Technical authorities reviewing well plans
Module 1: Risk in Drilling
- Risk types in well projects
- Risk identification methods
- Risk register construction
- Ownership and review cycles
- Linking risk to the well programme
Module 2: Qualitative Assessment
- Probability and consequence scales
- Risk matrices and their use
- Limitations and misuse of matrices
- Prioritisation and escalation
- When qualitative assessment is enough
Module 3: Probability Estimation
- Estimating probabilities from offset data
- Frequency and subjective estimates
- Calibration of expert judgement
- Ranges and uncertainty
- Documenting the basis of estimates
Module 4: Decision Trees
- Structuring a decision
- Chance and decision nodes
- Solving the tree
- Sensitivity to probabilities
- Worked drilling examples
Module 5: Expected Value and Risk Preference
- Expected value calculation
- Risk neutrality and aversion
- Utility and company risk policy
- When expected value is the wrong criterion
- Applying it to operational decisions
Module 6: Value of Information
- The concept and its calculation
- Perfect and imperfect information
- Application to logging, coring and testing
- Appraisal and pilot hole decisions
- Avoiding data that changes nothing
Module 7: Probabilistic Modelling
- Duration and cost distributions
- Monte Carlo analysis
- Correlation between uncertainties
- P10, P50 and P90 outputs
- Interpreting and presenting results
Module 8: Contingency and Design Decisions
- Setting contingency from distributions
- Contingency casing string decisions
- Equipment and spares decisions
- Risk-based well design choices
- Documenting the decision basis
Module 9: Bias and Communication
- Anchoring, overconfidence and optimism bias
- Escalation of commitment
- Group decision dynamics
- Structured methods as a defence
- Communicating risk to management and partners
- Recording decisions for later review
Upon successful completion of this training course, delegates will be awarded an official Certificate of Completion issued by the Petroleum Engineers Association (PEA), an ISO 9001:2015 certified training organization. The certificate carries 10 Credits and formally records the total learning hours completed.
Each certificate is signed by the Course Facilitator and the CEO of the Petroleum Engineers Association, and serves as verifiable proof of professional training that delegates can present to employers and professional bodies worldwide.
Frequently Asked Questions
All course bookings made through PEA are strictly non-refundable. By registering for a course, you acknowledge and accept that all fees are payable in full and are not subject to refund under any circumstances, including changes in personal or professional commitments or partial attendance.
PEA reserves the right to make reasonable adjustments to course content, trainers, or schedules where necessary, without entitling delegates to a refund. Comprehensive details of each course — including objectives, target audience, and content — are clearly outlined before enrolment, and it is the responsibility of the delegate to ensure the course's suitability prior to booking.
For any inquiries related to cancellations or bookings, please contact our support team, who will be happy to assist you.
