An Interactive 5-Day Training Course
Well Cost & AFE Modelling Using MS Excel
Well Cost Models in Excel
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Duration
5 Days
Price
$ 2,000
Starting From
28 Feb 2027
Well Cost & AFE Modelling Using MS Excel
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Well Cost & AFE Modelling Using MS Excel - DC-AFE-EXCEL-PEA27
| Code | Date | Time | Duration | Location | Currency | Early Bird Fee Per Person |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DC-AFE-EXCEL-PEA27 | 28 Feb - 04 Mar 2027 | 4 Hours / Day | 10 AM CST |
Online |
USD |
2000 |
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Well Cost & AFE Modelling Using MS Excel
This course builds well cost estimation and authorisation for expenditure workbooks in Microsoft Excel. Participants build time versus depth models, cost breakdown structures, day rate and consumable calculations, probabilistic duration and cost models, contingency assessment, AFE formats, cost tracking against plan, variance analysis and campaign cost models, using live formulas with no macros, add-ins or coding.
Description
Well cost estimates drive investment decisions and the budgets teams are held to, and most are built in spreadsheets of unclear provenance. Building a proper cost model, with the time estimate underneath it and uncertainty expressed as a range, produces estimates that survive scrutiny and track usefully against actuals.
This course builds that model. It starts with time estimation: operation breakdown, durations from offset data, time versus depth curves and the learning curve across a campaign. It builds the cost breakdown structure, day rate costs, consumables and services, tangibles and third party costs. It then builds probabilistic duration and cost models using Excel's own functions, producing P10, P50 and P90 outcomes, and contingency assessment based on that distribution rather than a flat percentage. It builds authorisation for expenditure formats and supporting documentation, cost tracking against plan during the well, variance analysis and forecasting, and campaign level cost models with learning curves. All with live formulas and no macros, add-ins or coding.
Cost follows time, so the time estimate is the real model. Day rates multiply durations, and an estimate built from a credible operation-by-operation time plan with offset data behind it will be defensible, while one built from a cost per metre figure will not survive the first question.
Contingency should come from the distribution, not from habit. Adding fifteen per cent because that is what is always added tells nobody anything about the risk. Building a probabilistic model and setting contingency at the difference between the P50 and the funding level makes the basis explicit and the number arguable.
Tracking during the well is where estimates improve. Comparing actual against planned time and cost daily, forecasting the final outcome from current progress and recording why variances occurred gives the next estimate better data than any benchmarking exercise.
By the end of this training, participants will be able to:
- Build operation-level time estimates from offset well data.
- Build time versus depth curves and learning curve models.
- Build a cost breakdown structure for well cost estimation.
- Calculate day rate, consumable, service and tangible costs.
- Build probabilistic duration and cost models with Excel functions.
- Produce P10, P50 and P90 cost and duration outcomes.
- Assess contingency from the probability distribution.
- Build authorisation for expenditure formats and supporting documentation.
- Track cost and time against plan during the well and forecast outcomes.
- Build campaign cost models including learning curves and variance analysis.
The course is instructor-led and entirely hands-on in Microsoft Excel. Participants build complete cost models for real wells, from time estimation through probabilistic analysis to AFE preparation, then track them against actual data. All work uses live formulas and Excel's built-in functions, with no macros, add-ins or coding. Participants keep every workbook built.
Organisations sending participants to this training will:
- Produce well cost estimates that withstand scrutiny.
- Express uncertainty as a range rather than a single number.
- Set contingency on a defensible basis.
- Track and forecast well cost during operations.
- Improve estimates through structured variance analysis.
Participants will:
- Be able to build well time and cost estimates from first principles.
- Be able to build probabilistic cost models in Excel.
- Be able to prepare and defend an AFE.
- Be able to track and forecast cost during a well.
- Take away working cost estimation workbooks.
- Drilling engineers and well planners
- Cost and planning engineers
- Drilling superintendents and managers
- Finance and commercial staff supporting drilling
- Project engineers on well delivery
- Graduate engineers in drilling roles
Module 1: Time Estimation
- Operation breakdown structure
- Durations from offset well data
- Flat time and productive time
- Trouble time allowance
- Building the time estimate sheet
Module 2: Time Versus Depth Models
- Building time versus depth curves
- Section by section planning
- Comparison with offset wells
- Technical limit curves
- Presenting the time plan
Module 3: Cost Breakdown Structure
- Cost categories and coding
- Day rate items
- Consumables and services
- Tangibles and equipment
- Third party and overhead costs
Module 4: Cost Calculation
- Linking cost to the time plan
- Rate tables and escalation
- Currency and tax considerations
- Mobilisation and demobilisation
- Building the base cost estimate
Module 5: Probabilistic Modelling
- Uncertainty in durations and rates
- Distribution selection
- Random sampling with Excel functions
- Running the simulation with live formulas
- Convergence and sample size
Module 6: Results and Contingency
- P10, P50 and P90 outputs
- Cost and duration distributions
- Tornado and sensitivity analysis
- Setting contingency from the distribution
- Communicating uncertainty to management
Module 7: AFE Preparation
- AFE format and content
- Supporting documentation
- Assumptions and exclusions
- Approval requirements
- Supplementary AFEs
Module 8: Cost Tracking
- Daily cost tracking against plan
- Committed versus incurred cost
- Forecasting final cost
- Variance identification
- Reporting formats
Module 9: Campaign Models and Variance Analysis
- Multi-well cost models
- Learning curve application
- Campaign budgeting
- Variance analysis and causes
- Feeding results into the next estimate
Upon successful completion of this training course, delegates will be awarded an official Certificate of Completion issued by the Petroleum Engineers Association (PEA), an ISO 9001:2015 certified training organization. The certificate carries 10 Credits and formally records the total learning hours completed.
Each certificate is signed by the Course Facilitator and the CEO of the Petroleum Engineers Association, and serves as verifiable proof of professional training that delegates can present to employers and professional bodies worldwide.
Frequently Asked Questions
All course bookings made through PEA are strictly non-refundable. By registering for a course, you acknowledge and accept that all fees are payable in full and are not subject to refund under any circumstances, including changes in personal or professional commitments or partial attendance.
PEA reserves the right to make reasonable adjustments to course content, trainers, or schedules where necessary, without entitling delegates to a refund. Comprehensive details of each course — including objectives, target audience, and content — are clearly outlined before enrolment, and it is the responsibility of the delegate to ensure the course's suitability prior to booking.
For any inquiries related to cancellations or bookings, please contact our support team, who will be happy to assist you.
