An Interactive 5-Day Training Course
Production Forecasting & Decline Analysis Using MS Excel
Forecasting Wells in Excel
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Duration
5 Days
Price
$ 2,000
Starting From
15 Feb 2027
Production Forecasting & Decline Analysis Using MS Excel
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Production Forecasting & Decline Analysis Using MS Excel - PE-DCA-EXCEL-PEA27
| Code | Date | Time | Duration | Location | Currency | Early Bird Fee Per Person |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PE-DCA-EXCEL-PEA27 | 15 - 19 Feb 2027 | 10 AM CST | 4 Hours Per Day |
Online |
USD |
2000 |
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Production Forecasting & Decline Analysis Using MS Excel
Description
Production forecasts drive budgets, reserves, facility planning and investment decisions, and most of them are built in spreadsheets. This course covers how to build them properly: fitting decline curves to data rather than by eye, handling operating changes and downtime, aggregating wells to field level with constraints, and expressing the uncertainty in the result.
Participants build the calculations from data preparation onward. The course covers production data cleaning and normalisation for downtime, decline curve models and their fitting by regression, rate transient analysis methods for unconventional and tight wells, and type well construction from a population of wells. It then covers probabilistic forecasting with Monte Carlo methods, field aggregation including uptime, facility constraints and new well schedules, reserves calculation and category assignment, and finally the automation of forecasting across hundreds of wells with validation and reporting.
Decline curve analysis is simple in principle and easy to do badly. Fitting by eye produces forecasts that reflect the analyst's expectations; fitting to data that includes downtime produces declines that are steeper than reality; fitting a hyperbolic curve with an unconstrained exponent to early data produces forecasts that never end. Each of these is common and each is avoidable with a properly built workbook.
Aggregation is where field forecasts go wrong in a different way. Summing well forecasts ignores facility constraints, uptime and the fact that not every well is down at the same time. A field forecast needs uptime factors, constraint checks and a new well schedule, and it needs to be reconcilable with the well-level numbers it came from.
Uncertainty is the last piece. A single deterministic forecast is a statement of one outcome, and everyone knows it will be wrong. Building probabilistic forecasts is not difficult in Excel and gives planners and management a far more useful picture of the range they are dealing with.
By the end of this training, participants will be able to:
- Prepare and normalise production data for decline analysis.
- Handle downtime, operating changes and data gaps correctly.
- Fit exponential, hyperbolic and harmonic decline curves by regression.
- Constrain fitting parameters to produce credible forecasts.
- Apply rate transient analysis methods for tight and unconventional wells.
- Construct type wells from a population of wells.
- Build probabilistic forecasts using Monte Carlo methods.
- Aggregate well forecasts to field level with uptime and constraints.
- Calculate reserves and assign categories consistently.
- Automate forecasting across a large well population with validation and reporting.
Organisations sending participants to this training will:
- Produce forecasts that are built on data rather than expectation.
- Improve consistency of forecasting method across the asset.
- Express forecast uncertainty explicitly for planning and investment decisions.
- Aggregate well forecasts correctly with constraints and uptime.
- Automate routine forecasting and reduce manual effort.
Participants will:
- Be able to fit decline curves properly and defend the result.
- Be able to handle real, imperfect production data.
- Be able to build probabilistic and type well forecasts.
- Be able to aggregate to field level with constraints.
- Leave with a working forecasting workbook.
- Production engineers
- Reservoir engineers
- Planning and economics staff
- Production technologists
- Reserves and reporting staff
- Asset and development engineers
Module 1: Production Data Preparation
- Data sources and quality checks
- Normalising for downtime and uptime
- Handling operating changes and interventions
- Identifying data suitable for analysis
Module 2: Decline Curve Models
- Exponential, hyperbolic and harmonic decline
- Decline parameters and their meaning
- Terminal decline and switching
- Limits of decline analysis
Module 3: Fitting Decline Curves
- Regression fitting in Excel
- Constraining the hyperbolic exponent
- Weighting and selecting the fit period
- Goodness of fit and residual checks
- Automating the fit
Module 4: Rate Transient Analysis
- Linear flow and square root of time analysis
- Flowing material balance
- Type curve methods
- Application to unconventional wells
Module 5: Type Wells
- Selecting the well population
- Normalising and aligning well histories
- Building percentile type curves
- Applying type wells to new drills
Module 6: Probabilistic Forecasting
- Parameter distributions
- Monte Carlo implementation in Excel
- Producing low, mid and high cases
- Interpreting probabilistic output
- Aggregation of probabilistic well forecasts
Module 7: Field Aggregation
- Summing well forecasts
- Uptime and availability factors
- Facility and processing constraints
- New well and intervention schedules
- Reconciling field and well forecasts
Module 8: Reserves Calculation
- Cumulative production and remaining reserves
- Economic limit and cut-off
- Reserves categories
- Documentation and audit requirements
Module 9: Automation and Reporting
- Batch forecasting across many wells
- Validation checks on automated fits
- Exception reporting for poor fits
- Forecast comparison against actuals
- Reporting outputs and charts
Upon successful completion of this training course, delegates will be awarded an official Certificate of Completion issued by the Petroleum Engineers Association (PEA), an ISO 9001:2015 certified training organization. The certificate carries 10 Credits and formally records the total learning hours completed.
Each certificate is signed by the Course Facilitator and the CEO of the Petroleum Engineers Association, and serves as verifiable proof of professional training that delegates can present to employers and professional bodies worldwide.
Frequently Asked Questions
All course bookings made through PEA are strictly non-refundable. By registering for a course, you acknowledge and accept that all fees are payable in full and are not subject to refund under any circumstances, including changes in personal or professional commitments or partial attendance.
PEA reserves the right to make reasonable adjustments to course content, trainers, or schedules where necessary, without entitling delegates to a refund. Comprehensive details of each course — including objectives, target audience, and content — are clearly outlined before enrolment, and it is the responsibility of the delegate to ensure the course's suitability prior to booking.
For any inquiries related to cancellations or bookings, please contact our support team, who will be happy to assist you.
